SunSizer — Solar Payback Calculator

Years to break even and 25-year savings, using 2026 numbers. Estimates only.

Your payback

2026 tax credit status: the federal residential credit (Section 25D) ended for systems placed in service after Dec 31, 2025 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act; IRS FS-2025-05). New homeowner-owned installs get 0% federal credit. Leave the field at 0 unless you have a state/utility incentive — enter it as a percent of cost.

SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Q2 2026 national average: $3.36/W.

0% federal for new 2026 homeowner systems. Add state/utility % here.

From the system sizer — production capped at your usage.

EIA Sep 2026 national residential forecast ≈ $0.18.

Planning assumption, editable.

Assumes production stays flat and the system needs no major repairs — real systems degrade ~0.5%/year and inverters get replaced around year 12–15. Get a real site survey and 2–3 quotes before deciding.

Frequently asked

Why is payback longer than articles from 2024 say?

Most older articles assumed the 30% federal credit. On a $23,500 system that credit was worth about $7,050. Without it, the same system costs 43% more out of pocket, which stretches payback by several years.

What if my utility doesn't offer net metering?

Then only the electricity you use while the sun shines offsets your bill — roughly half of production for a typical home without a battery. Select "self-consumption only" above to see the difference. Batteries change this math but add $8,000–$15,000+.

Should I lease instead of buying?

Leases and PPAs can still access commercial tax credits (the leasing company claims them), which sometimes makes $0-down offers competitive post-2026. Read our lease vs buy guide for the tradeoff.

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